College grid playoff looks amazingly fair
Maybe the best idea in college football was to whistle a halt to the college football playoff rating system right now. It wouldn’t be too bad as far as fair representation of the five major conferences go. The selection committee has decreed in its next-to-last rating that the top four teams in the nation are: 1. Alabama, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, and 4. Washington.
The rest of the top 10 are: 5. Michigan, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Penn State, 8. Colorado, 9. Oklahoma, and 10. Oklahoma State.
Trouble is, there is another very big weekend of college football left. The conferences go into divisional playoffs this weekend, or a final league game. The best of those is in the Big Ten, which has had the most amazing transformation. Ohio State and Michigan played an incredible game before OSU won 30-27 in two overtimes to climb into the top four while Michigan fell out. But neither of them will play in the Big Ten championship game, where Wisconsin faces Penn State in what should be an outstanding game.
Another excellent game will come Friday night, when Washington risks its No. 4 rating against No. 8 Colorado, which won the South half.
With five major conferences, only the Big 12 is left out, without a team among the four finalists, and by standing idle last weekend, Oklahoma fell to No. 9, and faces No. 10 Oklahoma State in its final regular game, with no league playoff. The interesting thing is that if anyone among the top four falters, it won’t be Ohio State, which is No. 2 and not risking anything in the Big Ten title match. But if someone falls out of the top four, lurking there are Michigan, and whoever wins between Wisconsin and Penn State, to give the Big Ten two of the four.
Personally, I don’t think any league should get more than one team in the final four. But a year or two ago, everyone agreed the Big Ten had fallen into disfavor as far as being an elite conference goes. Now four of the top seven teams in the rating are from the Big Ten.
Following that up, let’s look just at the top 12. The Big Ten has four, the Pac 12 has three, the Big 12 has two, the Atlantic Coast Conference has two, and the Southeast Conference has one. For years, ESPN has sung the praises of the SEC and raved about it being by far the best conference. Alabama is unquestionably strong, at 12-0, and deserves the No. 1 rating, although the Crimson Tide has only played one other team among the top 12 – Southern Cal, in the season opener. Normally, Alabama’s SEC schedule would be considered mighty, but Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn are all having poor-to-mediocre seasons. Alabama will, however, have a moderate test against Florida in Saturday’s SEC divisional championship.
Clemson, which is 11-1 and considered very strong, also has played just one top-12 team, and that was No. 12 Florida State. The Tigers lost to Pittsburgh – and it wasn’t the Steelers! Clemson shouldn’t be challenged too strenuously by Virginia Tech in the ACC divisional title game Saturday, but you never know.
Washington is 11-1 and has only played Southern Cal among top 12 teams, but will play another in Colorado Friday. Ohio State lost only to Penn State (24-21) and beat No. 9 Oklahoma 45-24, No. 6 Wisconsin 30-23, and No. 5 Michigan 30-27.
Those should be pivotal games this weekend, but we can only wonder what the committee might do if a couple top four teams get upset. If Alabama gets upset, chances are the committee would keep them in the top four just because of their heritage, not that it would be correct. Ohio State is through playing until playoffs and should be solid in second. If Clemson gets upset, they would be out of the playoffs and a second Big Ten team would come in, Michigan or the Penn State-Wisconsin winner. And if Washington were to lose to Colorado, it would not really be an upset because the teams are so evenly matched, and the committee could vault Colorado all the way up to fourth to replace the Huskies.
Otherwise, can you imagine if Clemson and Washington were both upset this weekend, the committee could slide Michigan AND the Wisconsin-Penn State winner in, and the Big Ten would have three of the final four!
Regardless, some very good teams are left on the outside, looking in, although that’s always going to be the case. For example, Southern California, which struggled at the start but has now established itself as perhaps the hottest team in the country, ranks No. 11, followed by: 12. Florida State, 13. Louisville, 14. Auburn, 15. Florida, 16. West Virginia, 17. Western Michigan – undefeated, 12-0 Western Michigan, we might add, 18. Stanford, 19. Navy, and 20. Utah.
The beauty of it all is that a whole bunch of bowl games that are now rendered to second class by the playoff semifinals taking up two bowls on a rotating basis will now be very intriguing. Imagine any of the higher ranking Big Ten teams going up against any Pac 12 or SEC or Big 12 team, such as Michigan against USC, or Wisconsin or Penn State facing Oklahoma or Stanford or Colorado. One of my greatest hopes is that unbeaten Western Michigan gets to play giant-killer against a large team from a major conference and strikes a blow for the little guys.
Then there are the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The avalanche of publicity is to give coach Tracy Claeys a new contract, which I don’t disagree with. But the reason given – that the Gophers “won eight games this season” – is absurd. First, consider that before the season started, these same folks pointed out that the Gophers had the weakest schedule any team could have and still be playing in the Big Ten, with no Ohio State and no Michgian. Playing in the Big Ten without facing either of the Big Two is a joke.
The Gophers had a cupcake schedule, beating Oregon State, Indiana State, and Colorado State, before starting the Big Ten with losses to Penn State and Iowa to open Big Ten play. There followed the four worst teams in the Big Ten, and Minnesota beat Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue, before things got tough and the Gophers fell to Nebraska, barely beat Northwestern, and lost at Wisconsin. At 8-4, the eight teams Minnesota defeated had a combined 35-60 record, and only Colorado State ended with a winning ledger. The four losses came against teams that had a 34-11 composite record.
But the worst display of the season by the Gophers came at Wisconsin. I like the Wisconsin team, and I was amazed when Mitch Leidner led the Gophers to a 17-7 halftime lead with a near-flawless first half, passing with crisp precision and running effectively whenever the situation called for it. But then came the second half, and the Gophers completely collapsed. At halftime, I was genuinely thrilled for Leidner, because he played so well I could imagine him getting an NFL tryout. But in the second half, Leidner comleted only two passes – unless you count Badgers defenders. Leidner threw four interceptions in the second half, and the Gophers were outscored 24-0 in the second half, to lose 31-17.
We will be hearing that the Gophers will be headed off to some bowl game, and as someone who attended the University of Minnesota, and has always hoped that the Gophers could again be Golden, I’m embarrassed.